Probably Not in 2025

Predicting the future is hard and forecasting is not really my forte, otherwise I’d be

sitting on a yacht in the Caribbean drinking mojito’s, so here’s my list of things that

probably won’t happen in 2025:

1. You probably won’t get rich overnight. Someone will. Probably not you or me. But

if you do, let me know!

2. No one will predict the biggest risk or upside catalyst. The most significant risk of

the decade turned out to be a pandemic that no one could have anticipated. It reshaped

the economic, market, and political landscape in ways that will resonate for decades to

come. Meanwhile, as the tech world was busy promoting the metaverse and Web 3 (remember those?), ChatGPT emerged seemingly out of nowhere, with AI driving much of the stock market's performance over the past two years. These events caught everyone off guard, and it's just as unlikely that anyone will accurately predict the next major catalyst.

3. 2025 probably won’t work out according to expert

forecasts. Bloomberg collected all of Wall Street’s annual forecasts since 2000

showing the range of predictions versus the actual results:

Forecasting the short-term is hard:

If hearing the brokerages’ average 2025 forecast of a 9.1% gain is giving you a sense of

déjà vu, you’re onto something. Over the past 25 years, 53% of the 376 firm forecasts

surveyed by Bloomberg clustered between 0% and 10%.

In seven of the past eight years, the market’s returns were outside the range of all

forecasts compiled, often collectively underestimating the index’s return potential.

4. You probably can’t predict what the best-performing asset class or strategy will

be. 

5. You probably won’t like something about the economy. People were upset during

the Great Financial Crisis because housing prices crashed and wouldn’t go up.

In the 2010s inflation and wage growth were too low.

In the 2020s inflation and wage growth are too high.

People are upset now that housing prices are too high.

There is no such thing as a perfect economic environment for everyone.

6. You probably won’t outperform the market. Some people will. Most won’t. The

good news is outperforming is not a prerequisite for financial success.

7. You probably won’t pick the best-performing stock. These are the five best- performing stocks in the Russell 3000 Index for 2024:

• GeneDx Holdings (WGS) +2,684%

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) +1,626%

• Sezzle Inc (SEZL) +1,142%

• Dave Inc (DAVE) +1,026%

• SoundHound (SOUN) +969%

I follow the stock market multiple times a day. I’m not ashamed to admit I’ve never heard

of any of these companies.

The only way I’ll ever own the best-performing stock is in a low cost, highly diversified,

ETF and I’m OK with that.

8. It's unlikely that every holding in your portfolio will perform well at the same

time. While a highly concentrated portfolio might occasionally see everything thriving,

remember that even the tallest trees don’t grow to the moon.

9. You probably won’t time the market perfectly. In the beginning of 2021 I had a

chunk of cash to invest and dollar cost averaged into the market.

In hindsight it would have been better putting in the whole thing all at once.

In 2022 I had another chunk of cash to invest but decided to do a lump sum all at once.

In hindsight it was the wrong strategy in a market that went straight down.

Timing the market is mostly luck. No one ever does it perfectly.

The good news is a long-time horizon is the ultimate equalizer. The timing of your

purchases doesn’t matter that much if you think in terms of decades.

10. You probably won’t find fulfillment and contentment from your favorite

influencer. I have a lot of friends and mentors who have met and had deep

conversations with some of the biggest personal finance experts. And have said some

of these same people who preach about being zen with your finances and finding your

‘enough’ obsess over how much they make and have an unhealthy relationship with

money.

Most of the people who seem to have life figured out on social media are full of it.

With that, these are my predictions of what probably won’t happen in 2025. But,

one thing I hope to make happen is, we all can look back and say that we made a

positive difference in the lives of others!

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide

specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is

historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not

be invested into directly